I had made up my mind a long time ago that if I were to ever pursue an advanced degree in technology my first choice would be Carnegie Mellon University. Of course I have alternate choices and would choose a different school if I was looking at something like an MBA, but for technology CMU is the Holy Grail for me.
I am currently in the application process to attend the H. John Heinz III College at Carnegie Mellon University in the Master of Science in Information Technology (MSIT) program. Invariably when I talk to people about pursuing my Master Degree they ask about my school choices, which is immediately followed by the question "Why there?" My response has always been "Because it’s Carnegie Mellon," and usually includes what I am certain is a dumb-founded look on my face.
I believe it is the dumb-founded look that stops people from asking further along that line of questioning, so they ask about my second choice for schools, which is the Harvard University Extension School. Now it is my turn to receive a dumb-founded look.
Yes, Harvard University is my second choice, but I have continuously had a difficult time expressing the reason CMU is my number one school. For those people who are familiar with CMU's Computer Science program it generally makes sense without explanation, but what I have taken for granted as something "Universally Known" appears to be pretty unknown to most people. It is the universally known aspect that has really been the reason I haven't verbalized concretely why CMU is my school of choice. With today being the eve of my first visit to Carnegie Mellon for their fall open house it seems like the appropriate time to put into words what I know deep down inside.
The name and reputation of CMU in most of the Information Technology industry is generally reason enough to attend the school, but there is far more to it than that for me. Obviously with the name and reputation comes a given level of quality of the professors and the curriculum. Perhaps not a complete "given" for such an assumption, but in this case it is definitely true. Still, that alone is not enough of a reason for me.
Enter the quality of the students. This is a big reason for my wishing to attend. CMU accepts the best and the brightest, and rejects students that could find a home on almost any other campus without problem. In an academic lifetime where I have found very little challenge, this caliber of student raises the bar; thus requiring more challenging courses, which in turn raises the bar higher.
That is what I want. A bar set so high, brought about because of the incredibly high quality of students who continuously strive to hurdle that bar and set a new standard. That challenge. That level of knowledge and interaction. A school full of students and professors who will accept nothing less than the very best from everyone around them, because anything less than a persons best will leave them looking on from a distance as the class races ahead. That is why I want to attend Carnegie Mellon University.
Stumble ThisMonday, November 3. 2008
Thinking Evolution
Evolution is a complicated and demanding Mistress. Mostly misunderstood and largely unknown. She spawns misinformation, debates, arguments and even a religion (Pastafarianism). Given the shroud of mystery surrounding evolution, it only makes sense to, well, make sense of evolution prior to any attempt at evolving robotics.
One could spend a lifetime studying all the nuances that go into making up evolution and barely scratch the surface; from biology to genetics to molecular chemistry to astrophysics, and everything in-between. Not wishing to use up the years I have left in this lifetime without ever building another robot, I believe a quick overview and some ground "rules" (understandings) will suffice quite nicely. Of course, like the robot, my understanding of what should come next will also evolve along this process.
Given the subject of evolution as it relates to robotics, a *MUST* read for anyone and everyone is Crabs Take Over the Island by Anatoly Dnieprov published as part of Russian Science Fiction 1969. The premise used in the story is one that would be the best method of evolving a robot, i.e. Natural Selection. For our purposes, natural selection is a process that takes a bit too long to work out. Instead, we will ignore science for this part of the evolutionary process and opt for a more spiritual view by using Intelligent Design. For those less willing to read the above linked wiki articles, I'll be nice enough to provide a brief overview of what I mean.
Natural Selection is the fundamental basis of evolution where members of a species with "good" (desirable) genetic traits are more inclined to survive and produce offspring, versus those that contain "defective" (less desirable) traits. Natural Selection is combined with genetic mutation (the theory that there is no such thing as a perfect copy) to produce evolution. In order for genetic mutation to occur, generations of duplicates must be produced before a visible mutation is generally present (although not always). The Natural Selection part either kills off the duplicates that lack the good mutations or they don't get the chance to breed (Blue-Footed Booby is a good example of how that works).
Intelligent Design is a spiritual idea that, from a scientific perspective, revolves around the belief that there is no way in hell that all this happened by chance. The odds are just too astronomical, and therefore a divine helping hand must have shaped the creatures of this Earth. Of course it is still a spiritual thing and not really science (hence why I am a Pastafarian), but for the purposes of evolving robotics it will work nicely.
Ideally, a combination of the two theories (I use the word as both a scientific term and a more literal term) would work best, whereby several "models" for each stage of the robotics evolution could be created with testing to see which worked best. Lacking that level of time and funding, I will work under the assumption that the model I create is the best of that generation possible (it really won't be, but this is my blog and I can assume anything I want, so there). That will be our first rule: I am the robotic creator and I know best.
Our second rule involves the learning process, or rather the doing process. Why creatures do the things they do. My thought on this, and yours may differ but it is likely wrong, is there are three things that make a creature (humans included) do anything. The first of these is genetic hard coding. The simplest of organisms up to the most complex (i.e. US) have genetic hard coding built in. Breathing is a good example for the human side and the way a spider makes its web is one for the animal side. This principle is the most basic and easiest to duplicate in robotics, it just involves hardwiring in responses.
The second level that makes a creature do something is to teach it. Not all creatures are capable of this feat, but most are, even a goldfish (as proved by Mythbusters). This is everything from Pavlov's Dog to momma bird showing baby bird how to fly. For robotics, this equates to response algorithms programmed into the robot all the way up to the latest in robotic learning of teaching a robot human movement (among other things) by duplication. The algorithms range from the simple to the complex; and it is where robotics is currently stalled out at the moment.
The third, and final, level for creatures doing something is self teaching. The "because I can" principle. This is learning responses where an animal figures out not only the best way of doing something, but the why it should do something in the first place. It is this last part that is the distinction from the second level, the creature learning that it first needs to do something in response to its own conditions or the environment, and then learning what that thing is it needs to do. Surprisingly, many animals are capable of this, but not all. Watch dragonflies around a mirrored building and you will see that they don't quite learn not to fly into the windows, no matter how many times they do it.
The final rule for my grand adventure is progression, and to recognize its necessity. Just because something can be done at a higher level, does not mean it should. As an example, going back to breathing, just because we can control our breathing does not mean we should strip away the hardwired coding. Sleep would be rather disastrous. Likewise, everything that can begin as a hardcoded function should begin at that level. Start simple, and keep simple available.
These are my rules, or understandings, that will be used for guiding me towards evolving a robot through the generations. Every step I take will be broken down to the simplest forms possible, and every solution I come up with will be the best I can present. They might not be the best possible, but sometimes it is not the best that survive evolution. In the end I hope to stir up my own mind into new ways of thinking about robotics, and hopefully not go broke in the process.
One could spend a lifetime studying all the nuances that go into making up evolution and barely scratch the surface; from biology to genetics to molecular chemistry to astrophysics, and everything in-between. Not wishing to use up the years I have left in this lifetime without ever building another robot, I believe a quick overview and some ground "rules" (understandings) will suffice quite nicely. Of course, like the robot, my understanding of what should come next will also evolve along this process.
Given the subject of evolution as it relates to robotics, a *MUST* read for anyone and everyone is Crabs Take Over the Island by Anatoly Dnieprov published as part of Russian Science Fiction 1969. The premise used in the story is one that would be the best method of evolving a robot, i.e. Natural Selection. For our purposes, natural selection is a process that takes a bit too long to work out. Instead, we will ignore science for this part of the evolutionary process and opt for a more spiritual view by using Intelligent Design. For those less willing to read the above linked wiki articles, I'll be nice enough to provide a brief overview of what I mean.
Natural Selection is the fundamental basis of evolution where members of a species with "good" (desirable) genetic traits are more inclined to survive and produce offspring, versus those that contain "defective" (less desirable) traits. Natural Selection is combined with genetic mutation (the theory that there is no such thing as a perfect copy) to produce evolution. In order for genetic mutation to occur, generations of duplicates must be produced before a visible mutation is generally present (although not always). The Natural Selection part either kills off the duplicates that lack the good mutations or they don't get the chance to breed (Blue-Footed Booby is a good example of how that works).
Intelligent Design is a spiritual idea that, from a scientific perspective, revolves around the belief that there is no way in hell that all this happened by chance. The odds are just too astronomical, and therefore a divine helping hand must have shaped the creatures of this Earth. Of course it is still a spiritual thing and not really science (hence why I am a Pastafarian), but for the purposes of evolving robotics it will work nicely.
Ideally, a combination of the two theories (I use the word as both a scientific term and a more literal term) would work best, whereby several "models" for each stage of the robotics evolution could be created with testing to see which worked best. Lacking that level of time and funding, I will work under the assumption that the model I create is the best of that generation possible (it really won't be, but this is my blog and I can assume anything I want, so there). That will be our first rule: I am the robotic creator and I know best.
Our second rule involves the learning process, or rather the doing process. Why creatures do the things they do. My thought on this, and yours may differ but it is likely wrong, is there are three things that make a creature (humans included) do anything. The first of these is genetic hard coding. The simplest of organisms up to the most complex (i.e. US) have genetic hard coding built in. Breathing is a good example for the human side and the way a spider makes its web is one for the animal side. This principle is the most basic and easiest to duplicate in robotics, it just involves hardwiring in responses.
The second level that makes a creature do something is to teach it. Not all creatures are capable of this feat, but most are, even a goldfish (as proved by Mythbusters). This is everything from Pavlov's Dog to momma bird showing baby bird how to fly. For robotics, this equates to response algorithms programmed into the robot all the way up to the latest in robotic learning of teaching a robot human movement (among other things) by duplication. The algorithms range from the simple to the complex; and it is where robotics is currently stalled out at the moment.
The third, and final, level for creatures doing something is self teaching. The "because I can" principle. This is learning responses where an animal figures out not only the best way of doing something, but the why it should do something in the first place. It is this last part that is the distinction from the second level, the creature learning that it first needs to do something in response to its own conditions or the environment, and then learning what that thing is it needs to do. Surprisingly, many animals are capable of this, but not all. Watch dragonflies around a mirrored building and you will see that they don't quite learn not to fly into the windows, no matter how many times they do it.
The final rule for my grand adventure is progression, and to recognize its necessity. Just because something can be done at a higher level, does not mean it should. As an example, going back to breathing, just because we can control our breathing does not mean we should strip away the hardwired coding. Sleep would be rather disastrous. Likewise, everything that can begin as a hardcoded function should begin at that level. Start simple, and keep simple available.
These are my rules, or understandings, that will be used for guiding me towards evolving a robot through the generations. Every step I take will be broken down to the simplest forms possible, and every solution I come up with will be the best I can present. They might not be the best possible, but sometimes it is not the best that survive evolution. In the end I hope to stir up my own mind into new ways of thinking about robotics, and hopefully not go broke in the process.
Monday, October 27. 2008
Advancing Robotics - Evolution
At some point and time, everyone is guilty of trying to start off a little further along than they should. It might be in learning a new skill, undertaking a new task or even developing a relationship, but we all have the propensity to skip ahead to "the good stuff." Sometimes it works out, as a matter of fact, sometimes is works only because we skipped ahead; but often it will bite us in the ass instead.
The real world is full of examples that show how skipping ahead has proven not only beneficial, but brought about results no one thought possible. Mostly, this has to do with people not knowing something could not be done. Science was always good for this, with theory stating something could not be accomplished, only to have someone who never learned that theory prove it wrong. Far more often, though, skipping ahead has the tendency to produce failure.
Cognitive roboticists and AI developers have been guilty of jumping ahead more than most other "rational" scientific groups. And we do it at the professional, academic, and hobby levels; only, unlike many other disciplines, failure is not recognized. Instead it is seen as a step forward. Well, yes, Yoda and Sesame Street have taught us all that failure does not really exist as long as we learn from it. Unfortunately, when you set out to accomplish a task, and you do not meet the results desired at the end of the task, it is a failure. It is not necessarily a bad thing, some failures produce something totally unexpected and, yet, miraculous. But it is still failure.
In the world of Artificially Intelligent Robots, we have been failing miserably since before the first transistor was invented. And this failure is entirely because we all have decided to skip ahead. Jumping straight into writing creative algorithms in an attempt to unlock the secrets of artificial life. Ok, not all of us, but in the research I have read coming from those who started at the beginning, they have decided to stay at the beginning. Or at least have failed to progress.
The problem is that this is still a very new science; and as with all sciences we build on the foundations laid before us. It is only that cognitive robotics and artificial intelligence have no real foundations. Just teetering stilts that a few people have thrown out to the masses such as Turing Tests or Neural Networks or whatever the latest AI buzzwords are. I've read the algorithms. I've studied the theories. I've followed the research. I'm calling it all a failure. Sounds a little harsh, but it is an honest assessment. There are no artificially intelligent machines out there. There are some that mimic intelligence. There are some that even learn to a degree, or appear to learn at least. But as for a cognitive machine... None.
And now comes the part where I tell you why. Cognitive robotics and artificial intelligence has a foundation, and it starts at the beginning. Evolutionary science. We have skipped ahead past single cell organisms and plant life to walking, talking, seeing machines; but we haven't grasped the basics yet. We need to start over, only this time, we need to start at the "real" beginning and evolve from there. Of course we don't have 14 billion years to evolve the field of robotics, so there are some steps that will be skipped, such as the slow hereditary mutation process, and instead we steal from religion and go with Intelligent Creation.
I have been extremely guilty of skipping ahead in my work within the field. As an example, I wrote my first AI program in 1992. It was a learning algorithm, and it did learn. A little too well in some areas, but not well enough in others. It overwrote the computer operating system eventually and died. It was a failure, and I have been failing right alongside everyone else working in the field, professional or hobbyist ever since; because I have been jumping right into the cognitive part.
Now I am going to take a step back. Well, 14 billion years worth of steps back. Or 6000 years if you are a "devout believer". This will be the path from the very beginnings, up to the point I meet the robotics goal set out as part of the You Design It project, a hovering robot that learns to fly all on its own. This is my task now, and I am starting at the beginning this time around.
The real world is full of examples that show how skipping ahead has proven not only beneficial, but brought about results no one thought possible. Mostly, this has to do with people not knowing something could not be done. Science was always good for this, with theory stating something could not be accomplished, only to have someone who never learned that theory prove it wrong. Far more often, though, skipping ahead has the tendency to produce failure.
Cognitive roboticists and AI developers have been guilty of jumping ahead more than most other "rational" scientific groups. And we do it at the professional, academic, and hobby levels; only, unlike many other disciplines, failure is not recognized. Instead it is seen as a step forward. Well, yes, Yoda and Sesame Street have taught us all that failure does not really exist as long as we learn from it. Unfortunately, when you set out to accomplish a task, and you do not meet the results desired at the end of the task, it is a failure. It is not necessarily a bad thing, some failures produce something totally unexpected and, yet, miraculous. But it is still failure.
In the world of Artificially Intelligent Robots, we have been failing miserably since before the first transistor was invented. And this failure is entirely because we all have decided to skip ahead. Jumping straight into writing creative algorithms in an attempt to unlock the secrets of artificial life. Ok, not all of us, but in the research I have read coming from those who started at the beginning, they have decided to stay at the beginning. Or at least have failed to progress.
The problem is that this is still a very new science; and as with all sciences we build on the foundations laid before us. It is only that cognitive robotics and artificial intelligence have no real foundations. Just teetering stilts that a few people have thrown out to the masses such as Turing Tests or Neural Networks or whatever the latest AI buzzwords are. I've read the algorithms. I've studied the theories. I've followed the research. I'm calling it all a failure. Sounds a little harsh, but it is an honest assessment. There are no artificially intelligent machines out there. There are some that mimic intelligence. There are some that even learn to a degree, or appear to learn at least. But as for a cognitive machine... None.
And now comes the part where I tell you why. Cognitive robotics and artificial intelligence has a foundation, and it starts at the beginning. Evolutionary science. We have skipped ahead past single cell organisms and plant life to walking, talking, seeing machines; but we haven't grasped the basics yet. We need to start over, only this time, we need to start at the "real" beginning and evolve from there. Of course we don't have 14 billion years to evolve the field of robotics, so there are some steps that will be skipped, such as the slow hereditary mutation process, and instead we steal from religion and go with Intelligent Creation.
I have been extremely guilty of skipping ahead in my work within the field. As an example, I wrote my first AI program in 1992. It was a learning algorithm, and it did learn. A little too well in some areas, but not well enough in others. It overwrote the computer operating system eventually and died. It was a failure, and I have been failing right alongside everyone else working in the field, professional or hobbyist ever since; because I have been jumping right into the cognitive part.
Now I am going to take a step back. Well, 14 billion years worth of steps back. Or 6000 years if you are a "devout believer". This will be the path from the very beginnings, up to the point I meet the robotics goal set out as part of the You Design It project, a hovering robot that learns to fly all on its own. This is my task now, and I am starting at the beginning this time around.
Tuesday, October 21. 2008
Why I Hate The R/C Industry
Working in hobby level robotics you have limited choices when it comes to parts and supplies specific to the field. Of those parts and supplies available, many are over priced just for being carried by a robotics retailer. As a result, a lot of parts used in robotics come from the Radio Controlled industry. Point-of-fact, many of the manufacturers for robotic parts are long-time companies in the R/C industry; such as Hitec and Futaba.
The R/C industry has been around a heck of a lot longer than the robotics hobby industry, thus offering a much wider range of products and more mature technologies. This is a very good thing for robotic hobbyists, as it not only provides a larger source of miscellaneous parts, but prices tend to be lower as a result of the maturity of the technology and higher level of competition within the field.
The problem I have with the R/C industry is that despite its maturity, standardization is critically lacking. To get an idea of what I mean, we'll use a servo (motor) as an example. Servos come in all sorts of shapes and sizes, ranging from micro-servos to extra large servos; from nylon to metal to karbonite gears; and come in a variety of torque and speed ratings. These are all necessary differences that make one servo better for a given application than another. After all, you wouldn't want to put a lawn mower engine in a Ferrari; different motors for different things. Where things become a problem is that there are at least three (3) different connectors used for standard servos.
Three. And those are the styles I have used, I am sure there are more. No big deal, except when you consider what is needed in the connector to make the servo operate. Every standard servo uses three lines: power, signal and ground. Every connector out there for servos has these three, and only these three lines; but use different connector heads and sometimes different pin orders based purely on the manufacturer. One manufacturer might use the "Hitec" connector with pin order of power, signal, ground; the next a "Futaba" connector with pin order of power, ground, signal. Take a guess what happens if you connect up the servo to your robot wrong... To top it off, documentation really is lacking on the electronic aspects of these pin outs, so often you just have to hope their wire color coding makes sense (did I mention that they all use different wire coloring schemes?).
Far worse than the servo arena, is the power connector arena. In connecting a battery to an electronic speed controller there are a plethora of connector styles in use; again, based purely on the manufacturers whim. Deans connectors (or T-Plugs), bullet connectors (ranging across a dozen different sizes and styles), mini-deans connectors (also called Deans Micro), Traxxas connectors, Airtonics/Hitec/Futaba/JR plugs, and Kyosho connectors (also called Tamiya, Standard and Molex) to name a few. Yes, there are more. It is actually so bad in the R/C aircraft segment that about 50% of ESCs purchased will not have a single connector attached, just bare wire.
Now (because I work in the Information Technology arena), imagine how far behind computers would be if manufacturers were not able to agree (thanks to RFCs and organizations like IEEE) on standard connection types. Think it is difficult to get everything connected on your computer now? What if that mouse you purchased only plugged into one out of every ten computers correctly, and there was no way of knowing if yours was one of them until after you purchased it.
Early on, some computer manufacturers actually tried to buck the system and have their own proprietary connections and parts. They are now out of business, or call themselves "Apple" (before I tick off Mac zealots: yes, Apple has adopted many standards). Yet, the R/C industry happily chugs along without a care in the world, or a standard in sight. It is actually the #2 reason I originally left the R/C hobby, the #1 being price (which is a direct result of lack of standards).
What does all this have to do with the price of tea in China? As a follower of chaos theory I can probably answer that question directly, but instead I will say just this: I am thankful the R/C industry exists for the reasons mentioned in the first two paragraphs above. I also hate the R/C industry with a passion because I consistently have projects on hold while I wait for replacement connectors to arrive. Currently, that number, like the number of wires in a servo connector, is three. Three robotic projects that are on hold, waiting for different connectors. And that, my friends, is what is known as "a pain in the ass".
The R/C industry has been around a heck of a lot longer than the robotics hobby industry, thus offering a much wider range of products and more mature technologies. This is a very good thing for robotic hobbyists, as it not only provides a larger source of miscellaneous parts, but prices tend to be lower as a result of the maturity of the technology and higher level of competition within the field.
The problem I have with the R/C industry is that despite its maturity, standardization is critically lacking. To get an idea of what I mean, we'll use a servo (motor) as an example. Servos come in all sorts of shapes and sizes, ranging from micro-servos to extra large servos; from nylon to metal to karbonite gears; and come in a variety of torque and speed ratings. These are all necessary differences that make one servo better for a given application than another. After all, you wouldn't want to put a lawn mower engine in a Ferrari; different motors for different things. Where things become a problem is that there are at least three (3) different connectors used for standard servos.
Three. And those are the styles I have used, I am sure there are more. No big deal, except when you consider what is needed in the connector to make the servo operate. Every standard servo uses three lines: power, signal and ground. Every connector out there for servos has these three, and only these three lines; but use different connector heads and sometimes different pin orders based purely on the manufacturer. One manufacturer might use the "Hitec" connector with pin order of power, signal, ground; the next a "Futaba" connector with pin order of power, ground, signal. Take a guess what happens if you connect up the servo to your robot wrong... To top it off, documentation really is lacking on the electronic aspects of these pin outs, so often you just have to hope their wire color coding makes sense (did I mention that they all use different wire coloring schemes?).
Far worse than the servo arena, is the power connector arena. In connecting a battery to an electronic speed controller there are a plethora of connector styles in use; again, based purely on the manufacturers whim. Deans connectors (or T-Plugs), bullet connectors (ranging across a dozen different sizes and styles), mini-deans connectors (also called Deans Micro), Traxxas connectors, Airtonics/Hitec/Futaba/JR plugs, and Kyosho connectors (also called Tamiya, Standard and Molex) to name a few. Yes, there are more. It is actually so bad in the R/C aircraft segment that about 50% of ESCs purchased will not have a single connector attached, just bare wire.
Now (because I work in the Information Technology arena), imagine how far behind computers would be if manufacturers were not able to agree (thanks to RFCs and organizations like IEEE) on standard connection types. Think it is difficult to get everything connected on your computer now? What if that mouse you purchased only plugged into one out of every ten computers correctly, and there was no way of knowing if yours was one of them until after you purchased it.
Early on, some computer manufacturers actually tried to buck the system and have their own proprietary connections and parts. They are now out of business, or call themselves "Apple" (before I tick off Mac zealots: yes, Apple has adopted many standards). Yet, the R/C industry happily chugs along without a care in the world, or a standard in sight. It is actually the #2 reason I originally left the R/C hobby, the #1 being price (which is a direct result of lack of standards).
What does all this have to do with the price of tea in China? As a follower of chaos theory I can probably answer that question directly, but instead I will say just this: I am thankful the R/C industry exists for the reasons mentioned in the first two paragraphs above. I also hate the R/C industry with a passion because I consistently have projects on hold while I wait for replacement connectors to arrive. Currently, that number, like the number of wires in a servo connector, is three. Three robotic projects that are on hold, waiting for different connectors. And that, my friends, is what is known as "a pain in the ass".
Friday, September 26. 2008
Down to Go Up
The housing and lending industries have really screwed things up for the economy. In all actuality, people's greed has screwed things up. The new American dream, as it were. It is not just the businesses and big corporations, it is the average American who took out loans and bought property they can't afford. And it will be the average American who is going to continue to make things worse, at least for a time.
Let me back up a moment and just say I believe the United States is the greatest country in the world. Not so much on paper any more, but in theory. In my heart I know it to be true. I think the American people have the potential to outshine any nation in the world. Granted, our education levels, and even literacy levels are below many developed nations (actually most). The country has become a nation of consumers. We are the world’s largest consumer market. It wasn't always that way, and I firmly believe we have it in us to rise up once again to that level where the world will admire and respect the American "know-how".
Currently, there is debate in the US government regarding a proposed $700+ billion bailout to "fix" the problem caused by the greed I mentioned above. The debate is not only taking place in Washington, but among everyday citizens. People discussing, stating their opinions, and even calling and writing their government representatives to voice their opinion about the proposed bailout. It has sparked people's interest in government once again, at least to a small degree, and that is a wonderful thing.
Talking with people myself and following the news stories, it seems that around 2/3 of the population are not in favor of the proposed bailout. Unfortunately, I do not think the majority of that 2/3 understand the probable ramifications of the government "letting the cards fall where they may." And a good chunk of those who do understand, do not fully perceive just how bad things might get. So I am going to present the doom and gloom for a moment, just so you might grasp the severity of the situation, because apparently Washington is afraid to say all this.
In the not too distant past the housing market hit a huge boom. A good part of this was as a result of low federal interest rates, subprime loans, stated income loans and, to a lesser degree, fraud. Basically, the mortgage and banking industry made a bunch of bad loans. Now that in itself would be fine. They made the loans; they take the heat for the loans when they go bad. All well and good, except the loans were sold on the securities market. It is this last part that is going to make things (has made things) really bad for the economy.
Assuming you are not in the mortgage, banking or financial industry, I will give a very simplified run down on how all that works:
Many companies have a lot of assets tied up in what they were promised to be high return investments. They have no assets, because that is where their money is. In order to continue to be prosperous (and in some cases even make payroll) these companies borrow against the equity from their securities market accounts. Only those accounts are worthless now, so no one will lend them the money (Can you say "A-I-G"?). And they go belly-up.
On top of that, consumers (read: average American citizens) invested their retirement plans in what was promised as a guaranteed high rate of return. So those retirement plans: GONE. Other people got hood-winked by investment companies not disclosing the type of investment properly (*cough* F.T. *cough*), and so unwitting consumers are losing their pants as well. Now, if you are not one of those people (and a good majority of American's are not), you are probably saying no big deal, "My money is not in securities." Or even "I don't have a retirement plan like that; I keep everything in the bank." Right? Well as you guessed, there is more to this story.
If you have money invested in stocks or bonds for retirement here's the question you should ask yourself: Do you know whether the companies you have stocks or bonds with have money in the securities market? Your stock might suddenly become worthless because that safe company, which has been doing so well, invested its liquid capital in securities, and now it is going belly up. And because 90% of people involved in stock trades, investments or retirement accounts could not tell you whether a given company is going to run into this problem, the stock market (and entire financial industry) is screwed.
To be safe you pull all your money out (aka "the run on Wall Street"). Well, now that company, which was good and safe, who never invested in any of the bad markets, just had their stock value plummet. Their credit goes down the drain; they lose capital and can not get the Net Terms they once had in order to make their products. So they go belly-up. And it spirals from there.
On top of that, your home value will continue to drop. Before too long, if it has not happened already, your house will be worth less than you paid for it 10 years ago. And less than you will be able to sell it for 10 years from now. You are stuck in a mortgage that is more than the value of the home.
Unemployment rates will rise as many companies go under. The good solid companies will have to tighten their belts, and do massive lay-offs, further increasing unemployment. Consumer spending will drop because people just lost their retirements and possibly their job. To compensate for that, inflation will rise. Meaning you get less for more. Mom and dad, who have been living on their 401K, are flat broke and are coming to live with you. Your sister (whose Birthday was yesterday and you never called), lost her job and is coming to live with you as well. 19% unemployment rates or more. That means one out of every five adult family members (and their kids) will be coming to live with you. And your money is buying less, but you need to support more people.
It does not end there. The global economy depends on the United States; we are the world’s largest consumers. But now we aren't spending. So the global economy starts it spiral. And down, and down, and down it goes. To compensate for this, there will likely be a country or two that decides to go to war, and thus we have World War III. The good news is that war of that level is good for the economy; the bad news is that it is a war and people die (maybe all of us this time).
The scale of this thing has the potential to be huge. If you were not alive during the Great Depression, a historian, or can follow chaos theory, you probably can not comprehend just how bad things could get. It is not a recession. Just because you saw the "DOTCOM Bust" does not mean you understand how horrible things will get. It is similar to the people I hear in my area of Florida saying that a Category 3 hurricane would not be so bad because "we had that no name storm and things were fine." Well that no name storm you "lived through" was like a company laying you off during a booming market, where you can find a job in under a week. The Great Depression was a Category 4 hurricane, and tell it to the Katrina victims that are still recovering years later that it is "no big deal".
This is what the politicians in Washington understand, and why they are thinking about the $700+ billion bailout for the industry. Do you get it now?
That being said, I am still against the bailout. Following the Great Depression, the United States entered a period of unsurpassed innovation and overall greatness. Companies and people had no choice. To survive, people had to suck up a little humility and take what jobs they could. Families moved together, grew closer and became stronger. Companies had to be the best in order to continue on, which meant new ways of thinking, hiring the best people possible, and finally getting off their butts and doing what they had meant to do.
Take Ford Motor Company for example. For years they have wanted to be competitive with Japanese and Korean auto makers. But, with the economy at a decent level, they still had enough car sales to keep Senior Management in a nice lifestyle. Why bother spending the money to make a car that was better than Honda or Toyota at a price that was less? Necessity is the mother of invention, and there has been no necessity. In a depression, there is necessity and Ford (like many companies) will either sink or learn to swim faster than everyone else out there.
Through that necessity, this country could once again be the greatest nation on Earth. And I honestly believe we have the guts, drive and know-how to see it through. Unfortunately, it also means letting the country (and world) hit rock bottom and enter into another Great Depression. Down to go up; seems irrational, but sometimes it takes a little lunacy to make things better.
Let me back up a moment and just say I believe the United States is the greatest country in the world. Not so much on paper any more, but in theory. In my heart I know it to be true. I think the American people have the potential to outshine any nation in the world. Granted, our education levels, and even literacy levels are below many developed nations (actually most). The country has become a nation of consumers. We are the world’s largest consumer market. It wasn't always that way, and I firmly believe we have it in us to rise up once again to that level where the world will admire and respect the American "know-how".
Currently, there is debate in the US government regarding a proposed $700+ billion bailout to "fix" the problem caused by the greed I mentioned above. The debate is not only taking place in Washington, but among everyday citizens. People discussing, stating their opinions, and even calling and writing their government representatives to voice their opinion about the proposed bailout. It has sparked people's interest in government once again, at least to a small degree, and that is a wonderful thing.
Talking with people myself and following the news stories, it seems that around 2/3 of the population are not in favor of the proposed bailout. Unfortunately, I do not think the majority of that 2/3 understand the probable ramifications of the government "letting the cards fall where they may." And a good chunk of those who do understand, do not fully perceive just how bad things might get. So I am going to present the doom and gloom for a moment, just so you might grasp the severity of the situation, because apparently Washington is afraid to say all this.
In the not too distant past the housing market hit a huge boom. A good part of this was as a result of low federal interest rates, subprime loans, stated income loans and, to a lesser degree, fraud. Basically, the mortgage and banking industry made a bunch of bad loans. Now that in itself would be fine. They made the loans; they take the heat for the loans when they go bad. All well and good, except the loans were sold on the securities market. It is this last part that is going to make things (has made things) really bad for the economy.
Assuming you are not in the mortgage, banking or financial industry, I will give a very simplified run down on how all that works:
John Doe wants to buy a house, but he has crappy credit.
Jane Smith is a mortgage broker who works for Loans-R-Us mortgage broker firm and offers John Doe the chance of a lifetime to own that dream home, either through a subprime loan at a high interest rate, an ARM (adjustable rate mortgage, that starts with low payments and in five years when the interest rate increases "John can refinance using the equity in the home", only that equity never appeared), an interest only loan (again with the promise of equity to refinance later), or, using a loophole in FHA, John can do a stated income loan (read: fraud in many cases).
John Doe takes the loan with Loans-R-Us, and Jane Smith gets a nice big commission check, as does Loans-R-Us, who sells the loan at a discount to Super-Lenders-R-Us.
Super-Lenders-R-Us then takes the loan and sells it (at a discount) to a securities firm, WallStreet-Money-Inc, and makes a nice chunk of change.
WallStreet-Money-Inc then takes that loan from John Doe and bundles it together with 29 other loans and sells off multiple percentages of this bundled package out to the securities firms. In turn, the securities firms sell out pieces of it to consumers and companies.
With me so far? In a nutshell, the loan got sold off. Now, each of these sales has clauses that state that if John Doe does not make good on his payments then the next level has to buy it back. So when John's loan goes bad, WallStreet-Money-Inc goes back to Super-Lenders-R-Us for the money. Super-Lenders-R-Us goes back to Loans-R-Us and demands the money. Pretty fair right? Well, there is a problem here.
Loans-R-Us does not have the money to pay back all the loans that have defaulted. So they file chapter 7 bankruptcy. That leaves Super-Lenders-R-Us holding the bag. All is still good, right? Nope, they got stuck with so many bad loans that could not be dumped back off on the original brokers that they in turn file for bankruptcy. So WallStreet-Money-Inc gets stuck holding the bag.
If you have been following the news, you now know that the WallStreet-Money-Inc companies could not handle the bag they got stuck holding, so they have gone under (or are in the process there of). So who gets stuck with this proverbial hot-potato? The final investors. Consumers and companies that invested in the securities market.
Many companies have a lot of assets tied up in what they were promised to be high return investments. They have no assets, because that is where their money is. In order to continue to be prosperous (and in some cases even make payroll) these companies borrow against the equity from their securities market accounts. Only those accounts are worthless now, so no one will lend them the money (Can you say "A-I-G"?). And they go belly-up.
On top of that, consumers (read: average American citizens) invested their retirement plans in what was promised as a guaranteed high rate of return. So those retirement plans: GONE. Other people got hood-winked by investment companies not disclosing the type of investment properly (*cough* F.T. *cough*), and so unwitting consumers are losing their pants as well. Now, if you are not one of those people (and a good majority of American's are not), you are probably saying no big deal, "My money is not in securities." Or even "I don't have a retirement plan like that; I keep everything in the bank." Right? Well as you guessed, there is more to this story.
If you have money invested in stocks or bonds for retirement here's the question you should ask yourself: Do you know whether the companies you have stocks or bonds with have money in the securities market? Your stock might suddenly become worthless because that safe company, which has been doing so well, invested its liquid capital in securities, and now it is going belly up. And because 90% of people involved in stock trades, investments or retirement accounts could not tell you whether a given company is going to run into this problem, the stock market (and entire financial industry) is screwed.
To be safe you pull all your money out (aka "the run on Wall Street"). Well, now that company, which was good and safe, who never invested in any of the bad markets, just had their stock value plummet. Their credit goes down the drain; they lose capital and can not get the Net Terms they once had in order to make their products. So they go belly-up. And it spirals from there.
On top of that, your home value will continue to drop. Before too long, if it has not happened already, your house will be worth less than you paid for it 10 years ago. And less than you will be able to sell it for 10 years from now. You are stuck in a mortgage that is more than the value of the home.
Unemployment rates will rise as many companies go under. The good solid companies will have to tighten their belts, and do massive lay-offs, further increasing unemployment. Consumer spending will drop because people just lost their retirements and possibly their job. To compensate for that, inflation will rise. Meaning you get less for more. Mom and dad, who have been living on their 401K, are flat broke and are coming to live with you. Your sister (whose Birthday was yesterday and you never called), lost her job and is coming to live with you as well. 19% unemployment rates or more. That means one out of every five adult family members (and their kids) will be coming to live with you. And your money is buying less, but you need to support more people.
It does not end there. The global economy depends on the United States; we are the world’s largest consumers. But now we aren't spending. So the global economy starts it spiral. And down, and down, and down it goes. To compensate for this, there will likely be a country or two that decides to go to war, and thus we have World War III. The good news is that war of that level is good for the economy; the bad news is that it is a war and people die (maybe all of us this time).
The scale of this thing has the potential to be huge. If you were not alive during the Great Depression, a historian, or can follow chaos theory, you probably can not comprehend just how bad things could get. It is not a recession. Just because you saw the "DOTCOM Bust" does not mean you understand how horrible things will get. It is similar to the people I hear in my area of Florida saying that a Category 3 hurricane would not be so bad because "we had that no name storm and things were fine." Well that no name storm you "lived through" was like a company laying you off during a booming market, where you can find a job in under a week. The Great Depression was a Category 4 hurricane, and tell it to the Katrina victims that are still recovering years later that it is "no big deal".
This is what the politicians in Washington understand, and why they are thinking about the $700+ billion bailout for the industry. Do you get it now?
That being said, I am still against the bailout. Following the Great Depression, the United States entered a period of unsurpassed innovation and overall greatness. Companies and people had no choice. To survive, people had to suck up a little humility and take what jobs they could. Families moved together, grew closer and became stronger. Companies had to be the best in order to continue on, which meant new ways of thinking, hiring the best people possible, and finally getting off their butts and doing what they had meant to do.
Take Ford Motor Company for example. For years they have wanted to be competitive with Japanese and Korean auto makers. But, with the economy at a decent level, they still had enough car sales to keep Senior Management in a nice lifestyle. Why bother spending the money to make a car that was better than Honda or Toyota at a price that was less? Necessity is the mother of invention, and there has been no necessity. In a depression, there is necessity and Ford (like many companies) will either sink or learn to swim faster than everyone else out there.
Through that necessity, this country could once again be the greatest nation on Earth. And I honestly believe we have the guts, drive and know-how to see it through. Unfortunately, it also means letting the country (and world) hit rock bottom and enter into another Great Depression. Down to go up; seems irrational, but sometimes it takes a little lunacy to make things better.
Thursday, September 18. 2008
Educations
Today I will be taking the Graduate Record Examination (GRE) General Test. For the first time in quite a long while I am a little nervous about taking a test. For those who do not know, the examination is one of two primary tests used as part of admissions into a graduate level program (the other test being the GMAT). Basically, the test is similar to what I remember the SATs to be like: mathematics and vocabulary (although I understand the SATs have been changed since I took them 20 years ago). There are also two essay portions on the GRE.
Much like the SAT, if you had a year to study you could probably improve your score to some extent. Lacking that year’s preparation, I have opted for very little studying as I either know the content or I do not. I have done a little refreshing on the mathematics portion, but mostly I see my preparation work as getting into the correct mindset to take the exam, as opposed to learning new things.
In the quantitative section (i.e. mathematics) I should do fairly well provided I avoid simple mistakes such as multiplying two numbers incorrectly. On the verbal section (i.e. vocabulary) I can only do so much. When it comes to the vocabulary section there are three levels of progression based on the type of person you are: 1) those who do not read books, 2) those who read books, and 3) those who know Latin. I do not know Latin.
While I am in the process of gearing up for acceptance into one of the most esteemed graduate schools within the technology field, Carnegie Mellon University; my daughter is looking at undergraduate programs in her chosen field. This coming Saturday we will be taking a field trip to North Miami to take a look at one of those schools, Johnson and Wales. And while I am nervous about applying to CMU, I am far more anxious and concerned about my daughter getting into the right school.
The worst part is that I have even less control over her future schooling than I do my own, and beyond that, her life as a whole. I only hope that the education I have given her throughout her young life has been enough to provide the guide and motivation she will need. I suppose in the end, whether it is formal or life-based, it all comes down to education. And on many levels, that is a reassuring thought.
Much like the SAT, if you had a year to study you could probably improve your score to some extent. Lacking that year’s preparation, I have opted for very little studying as I either know the content or I do not. I have done a little refreshing on the mathematics portion, but mostly I see my preparation work as getting into the correct mindset to take the exam, as opposed to learning new things.
In the quantitative section (i.e. mathematics) I should do fairly well provided I avoid simple mistakes such as multiplying two numbers incorrectly. On the verbal section (i.e. vocabulary) I can only do so much. When it comes to the vocabulary section there are three levels of progression based on the type of person you are: 1) those who do not read books, 2) those who read books, and 3) those who know Latin. I do not know Latin.
While I am in the process of gearing up for acceptance into one of the most esteemed graduate schools within the technology field, Carnegie Mellon University; my daughter is looking at undergraduate programs in her chosen field. This coming Saturday we will be taking a field trip to North Miami to take a look at one of those schools, Johnson and Wales. And while I am nervous about applying to CMU, I am far more anxious and concerned about my daughter getting into the right school.
The worst part is that I have even less control over her future schooling than I do my own, and beyond that, her life as a whole. I only hope that the education I have given her throughout her young life has been enough to provide the guide and motivation she will need. I suppose in the end, whether it is formal or life-based, it all comes down to education. And on many levels, that is a reassuring thought.
Sunday, September 7. 2008
Returning From Hiatus
It has been nearly four months since I was last able to get an entry into this blog. Most of that has accounted for class work time, which, I am happy to say, I have finished. At least for the time being. Over the next week and a half I have two major items on my plate that will be determining the path my life takes for the following year or three.
The first of these items is the GRE General Exam that is scheduled for September 18, 2008 at 12:00PM EDT. Yes, despite everything else I might wish to accomplish and the time schooling has taken from my free time, it is my hope to go onto graduate school. Perhaps I am a glutton for punishment, but I have always enjoyed learning new things and have consistently strived to increase my understanding of as many different fields as possible. The moment I stop learning it will because I am dead, so I figure I should kill (no pun intended) two birds with one stone: Continue to learn, and hopefully learn from the best and the brightest, while improving my professional and academic value. Thus, Graduate School.
The second item on my list to accomplish in the next few weeks is the completion of a joint patent application with Harold Bright. We had filed a provisional patent approximately one year ago to allow time for proof of concept testing, and now it is time to file for full patent status. Unfortunately, while we are in the patent pending stages it is mums the word on our invention. But I will give a hint in that it involves robotics, and once we have the pseudo-prototype finished I will post a few video clips of the invention in action.
In the meantime, there are a few hundred blog entries that I have been storing up in my head over the past four months, and will be trying to trickle each and every one out through my finger tips as time permits. Eventually I will be back up to my self-set level of three entries per week, but for the next couple weeks I will have to be content with working within my time constraints. There is a light at the end of the tunnel, and I hear no train, only the sounds of my own footsteps as I return from hiatus.
The first of these items is the GRE General Exam that is scheduled for September 18, 2008 at 12:00PM EDT. Yes, despite everything else I might wish to accomplish and the time schooling has taken from my free time, it is my hope to go onto graduate school. Perhaps I am a glutton for punishment, but I have always enjoyed learning new things and have consistently strived to increase my understanding of as many different fields as possible. The moment I stop learning it will because I am dead, so I figure I should kill (no pun intended) two birds with one stone: Continue to learn, and hopefully learn from the best and the brightest, while improving my professional and academic value. Thus, Graduate School.
The second item on my list to accomplish in the next few weeks is the completion of a joint patent application with Harold Bright. We had filed a provisional patent approximately one year ago to allow time for proof of concept testing, and now it is time to file for full patent status. Unfortunately, while we are in the patent pending stages it is mums the word on our invention. But I will give a hint in that it involves robotics, and once we have the pseudo-prototype finished I will post a few video clips of the invention in action.
In the meantime, there are a few hundred blog entries that I have been storing up in my head over the past four months, and will be trying to trickle each and every one out through my finger tips as time permits. Eventually I will be back up to my self-set level of three entries per week, but for the next couple weeks I will have to be content with working within my time constraints. There is a light at the end of the tunnel, and I hear no train, only the sounds of my own footsteps as I return from hiatus.
Monday, May 26. 2008
Out With The Old
I have had my SageTV PVR computer setup and running smoothly for a little over two and a half years now. Aside from swapping out and adding a few different recording devices, the box has remained the same throughout this entire time and I could not have been happier with it. A Pentium 4 3GHz processor, 1 GB of RAM, a 300GB SATA drive, and an eVGA 6600GT video card are the guts that comprised this system; nothing flashy, but it made for an excellent entertainment system.
On various posts in the SageTV forums I have read of problems people have had with Sage, or other PVR software products, ranging from blue screening to playback stuttering to system hang ups, but have experienced none of these problems myself (except when I tinker too much). As a matter of fact, with my basic system using the nVidia PureVideo decoder I have had remarkable image quality playing back SD TV content, DVDs, and even HDTV content. Given all this, why would I decide to upgrade my system?
The first reason is the release of Hauppauge's new HD PVR tuner. This little USB device allows for the recording of HDTV using component video feeds. What that means is it will allow recording of high definition television from the cable company's set top box (STB), allowing me to record all of my HD channels as HD, instead of only those broadcast in an unencrypted format (more or less the local network channels). Discovery HD here I come! The only problem is the listed minimum requirements for the HD PVR sights both a dual core processor and a graphic card with 256 MB of memory; neither of which my Sage box had. Granted, given my Sage box already played back HD content recorded with the HDHomeRun, I am still a little skeptical at the Hauppauge requirement.
The second reason for the system overhaul is BluRay. Now that the battle between HDDVD and BluRay is at an end with BluRay emerging the victor, I thought I might give the high definition movie arena a shot. Again, my existing Sage box played back HD recordings without a problem so I imagine it could tackle BluRay content, except for the industriy's lovely little catch: HDCP. HDCP is the movie industry's latest means of preventing copyright violations and movie piracy (which, mind you, as a software developer I am all for copyright protection). Unfortunately, every piece of the BluRay puzzle has to be HDCP compliant, and my poor eVGA 6600GT video card missed the boat. Considering this is an AGP card, I figured if I was going to have to replace the card, I should upgrade to the PCIe standard in the process.
The last reason, and most important, is that I finished my Six-Sigma paper and the Operations Management course with an A- (transfers over to a 4.0 back at Excelsior). So, damn it, I deserved a new toy. And what a toy I built. The new system uses a Gigabyte GA-P35-DS3L motherboard, an Intel Core 2 Duo E7200 2.53GHz processor, a Maxtor 500GB drive, 2 GB of RAM, a Gigabyte 8600GT video card, and ASUS BluRay SATA drive (I really need a Tim Allen sound bite here). You're jealous, I can tell.
I spent the better part of this weekend getting the system put together, software installed, and migrating all of the files over. When all was said and done...pretty much the same as my old system. The big improvements were in upgrading SageTV to the newest beta version (6.4.3), which held a few nice items I have been waiting on. Mostly convenience sake kind of things, but Sage also added some nice techie improvements such as H.264 support (for the Hauppauge HD PVR among other H.264 devices). The best part of this new Sage version is that despite it being a Beta release, everything I have tried has worked without a flaw. Impressive.
Once I had Sage running, I still found myself wanting to be "WOWed" with my new rig, so I went out and purchased a couple of BluRay movies and watched them using CyberLink PowerDVD Ultra 7.3 (SageTV does not currently have support for the BluRay menu stuff). Instead of being wowed, I found BluRay to be very disappointing. I guess SageTV and the nVidia PureVideo decoders were too far ahead of their time when it comes to video playback and up scaling, because DVDs on my old Sage box looked just as good as either of the BluRay movie I watched on the new.
All and all, the upgrade has been a mixed bag, the pluses of finally getting away from AGP, meeting the requirements of future enhancements, and the improvements with Sage; the minuses of no visible improvement in video playback and the disappointment of BluRay versus my old system and DVDs. So much for being "In with the new".
On various posts in the SageTV forums I have read of problems people have had with Sage, or other PVR software products, ranging from blue screening to playback stuttering to system hang ups, but have experienced none of these problems myself (except when I tinker too much). As a matter of fact, with my basic system using the nVidia PureVideo decoder I have had remarkable image quality playing back SD TV content, DVDs, and even HDTV content. Given all this, why would I decide to upgrade my system?
The first reason is the release of Hauppauge's new HD PVR tuner. This little USB device allows for the recording of HDTV using component video feeds. What that means is it will allow recording of high definition television from the cable company's set top box (STB), allowing me to record all of my HD channels as HD, instead of only those broadcast in an unencrypted format (more or less the local network channels). Discovery HD here I come! The only problem is the listed minimum requirements for the HD PVR sights both a dual core processor and a graphic card with 256 MB of memory; neither of which my Sage box had. Granted, given my Sage box already played back HD content recorded with the HDHomeRun, I am still a little skeptical at the Hauppauge requirement.
The second reason for the system overhaul is BluRay. Now that the battle between HDDVD and BluRay is at an end with BluRay emerging the victor, I thought I might give the high definition movie arena a shot. Again, my existing Sage box played back HD recordings without a problem so I imagine it could tackle BluRay content, except for the industriy's lovely little catch: HDCP. HDCP is the movie industry's latest means of preventing copyright violations and movie piracy (which, mind you, as a software developer I am all for copyright protection). Unfortunately, every piece of the BluRay puzzle has to be HDCP compliant, and my poor eVGA 6600GT video card missed the boat. Considering this is an AGP card, I figured if I was going to have to replace the card, I should upgrade to the PCIe standard in the process.
The last reason, and most important, is that I finished my Six-Sigma paper and the Operations Management course with an A- (transfers over to a 4.0 back at Excelsior). So, damn it, I deserved a new toy. And what a toy I built. The new system uses a Gigabyte GA-P35-DS3L motherboard, an Intel Core 2 Duo E7200 2.53GHz processor, a Maxtor 500GB drive, 2 GB of RAM, a Gigabyte 8600GT video card, and ASUS BluRay SATA drive (I really need a Tim Allen sound bite here). You're jealous, I can tell.
I spent the better part of this weekend getting the system put together, software installed, and migrating all of the files over. When all was said and done...pretty much the same as my old system. The big improvements were in upgrading SageTV to the newest beta version (6.4.3), which held a few nice items I have been waiting on. Mostly convenience sake kind of things, but Sage also added some nice techie improvements such as H.264 support (for the Hauppauge HD PVR among other H.264 devices). The best part of this new Sage version is that despite it being a Beta release, everything I have tried has worked without a flaw. Impressive.
Once I had Sage running, I still found myself wanting to be "WOWed" with my new rig, so I went out and purchased a couple of BluRay movies and watched them using CyberLink PowerDVD Ultra 7.3 (SageTV does not currently have support for the BluRay menu stuff). Instead of being wowed, I found BluRay to be very disappointing. I guess SageTV and the nVidia PureVideo decoders were too far ahead of their time when it comes to video playback and up scaling, because DVDs on my old Sage box looked just as good as either of the BluRay movie I watched on the new.
All and all, the upgrade has been a mixed bag, the pluses of finally getting away from AGP, meeting the requirements of future enhancements, and the improvements with Sage; the minuses of no visible improvement in video playback and the disappointment of BluRay versus my old system and DVDs. So much for being "In with the new".
Tuesday, May 13. 2008
To Be Secure
There is a saying in IT, "The only secure computer is one unloaded, unplugged and locked in a closet." More or less a true statement, but with computers everywhere at the workplace and home, it is not a very realistic approach. Plus I would be out of work, and who would want to see me on a street corner begging for money, right? I would make a pitiful vagrant. Really.
Why do I mention this? Well, the issue of computer security came up when I recently helped a friend fine tune a paper for one of her graduate classes. The paper was on the misuse of company resources, in relations to IT and HR departments; and, as just about everything does, it got me thinking (I really need a short vacation from doing that).
In the Information Services industry, security and misuse prevention go hand and hand, or rather, are two sides of the same coin (where do these sayings come from anyway?). The practice of keeping an Internet-connected-network secure from outside threats falls in the same arena as keeping users from going to inappropriate websites. Preventing illegal software, or even spyware, from being loaded by an employee on a company computer is in line with keeping time-wasting games off the computers (solitaire anyone?). The same with phone services, email and any number of other IT sub sects. If you are hitting one side of the issue, odds are you are hitting the other. And hopefully, in this day and age, you are taking information security very seriously.
My friend had covered most of this in her paper when I first proof read it for her. She also went into the discussion of monitoring and surveillance of employees versus privacy issues. Basically, the arguments of big brother at work against “this is a private email to my sister that is very important” (blah blah blah). If you have ever heard an argument for employees' rights at work regarding technology resources, or perhaps even argued for them, you can disregard what you have heard or said. In the United States, Germany, and many other countries around the world you don't have those rights for privacy when it comes to company resources. Big brother can, and probably does, watch you. He reads your email. He tracks your phone calls. He knows what fetish porn sites you are into. And, to protect the company that both you and he work for, he should be able to do all of that.
But he shouldn't have to do so much of it. That is what I brought to the table with this paper. The point of view of increased training and awareness, and it is something that helps everyone out more than any other action (or inaction). I am not the first, and won’t be the last to say this but, proper training and awareness of employees regarding acceptable use is a must have for any company. Further, proper training and awareness on basic security risks should also be a must have. Two sides of the same coin.
Had I finished my paper on Six Sigma (procrastination really is an art form), I would probably be inclined to dig up statistics and facts on what I am saying. Instead I will go with the common sense approach. If you, as an employee, knew that not only could (and likely would) your emails sent to or from work be read by someone in IT, but also your manager and supervisor, wouldn't you be less inclined to use it for personal messages? What if you knew that your manager would be reading those little flirtatious chat messages you have been sending to that cute girl in accounting? Would you really be looking at that new teddy from Victoria's Secret during your lunch hour if some guy in IT and your supervisor knew you bought it?
For the other side of this coin there is just one phrase that rings home on why training and awareness of security issues is important for employees. "I didn't know." It’s been heard a million times, and a lot of the time they really didn't know. Instead, imagine if they did know about scam/phishing emails, the damage malicious software could do, social engineering attacks, why giving ANYONE (even IT members) your password is bad, the dangers of loading software from the Internet, or even just the dangers of browsing to the wrong website. Users would suddenly become your number one security defense, instead of a security breach waiting to happen.
Give it some thought when your budgeting rolls around this year. Instead of, or at least in addition to, looking at that multi-thousand dollar device or piece of software to track everything under the sun on your network (until that buffer overflow attack compromises it), look at setting up a proper *ongoing* employee training regime for your company. Or just unplug the computers and lock them away in the closet.
Why do I mention this? Well, the issue of computer security came up when I recently helped a friend fine tune a paper for one of her graduate classes. The paper was on the misuse of company resources, in relations to IT and HR departments; and, as just about everything does, it got me thinking (I really need a short vacation from doing that).
In the Information Services industry, security and misuse prevention go hand and hand, or rather, are two sides of the same coin (where do these sayings come from anyway?). The practice of keeping an Internet-connected-network secure from outside threats falls in the same arena as keeping users from going to inappropriate websites. Preventing illegal software, or even spyware, from being loaded by an employee on a company computer is in line with keeping time-wasting games off the computers (solitaire anyone?). The same with phone services, email and any number of other IT sub sects. If you are hitting one side of the issue, odds are you are hitting the other. And hopefully, in this day and age, you are taking information security very seriously.
My friend had covered most of this in her paper when I first proof read it for her. She also went into the discussion of monitoring and surveillance of employees versus privacy issues. Basically, the arguments of big brother at work against “this is a private email to my sister that is very important” (blah blah blah). If you have ever heard an argument for employees' rights at work regarding technology resources, or perhaps even argued for them, you can disregard what you have heard or said. In the United States, Germany, and many other countries around the world you don't have those rights for privacy when it comes to company resources. Big brother can, and probably does, watch you. He reads your email. He tracks your phone calls. He knows what fetish porn sites you are into. And, to protect the company that both you and he work for, he should be able to do all of that.
But he shouldn't have to do so much of it. That is what I brought to the table with this paper. The point of view of increased training and awareness, and it is something that helps everyone out more than any other action (or inaction). I am not the first, and won’t be the last to say this but, proper training and awareness of employees regarding acceptable use is a must have for any company. Further, proper training and awareness on basic security risks should also be a must have. Two sides of the same coin.
Had I finished my paper on Six Sigma (procrastination really is an art form), I would probably be inclined to dig up statistics and facts on what I am saying. Instead I will go with the common sense approach. If you, as an employee, knew that not only could (and likely would) your emails sent to or from work be read by someone in IT, but also your manager and supervisor, wouldn't you be less inclined to use it for personal messages? What if you knew that your manager would be reading those little flirtatious chat messages you have been sending to that cute girl in accounting? Would you really be looking at that new teddy from Victoria's Secret during your lunch hour if some guy in IT and your supervisor knew you bought it?
For the other side of this coin there is just one phrase that rings home on why training and awareness of security issues is important for employees. "I didn't know." It’s been heard a million times, and a lot of the time they really didn't know. Instead, imagine if they did know about scam/phishing emails, the damage malicious software could do, social engineering attacks, why giving ANYONE (even IT members) your password is bad, the dangers of loading software from the Internet, or even just the dangers of browsing to the wrong website. Users would suddenly become your number one security defense, instead of a security breach waiting to happen.
Give it some thought when your budgeting rolls around this year. Instead of, or at least in addition to, looking at that multi-thousand dollar device or piece of software to track everything under the sun on your network (until that buffer overflow attack compromises it), look at setting up a proper *ongoing* employee training regime for your company. Or just unplug the computers and lock them away in the closet.
Thursday, May 1. 2008
The Best Day of the Year
I have never been one to celebrate holidays, whether it is Christmas, or Valentine's Day, or Easter, or Birthdays (including my own); to me, these days of the year are just that, another day of the year. I have been this way from an early age, just prior to hitting my teen years. There was no tragedy, religious experience or dramatic event that turned me off to these "special days", but rather a conscious decision on my own part.
The only holiday I have always enjoyed is Thanksgiving, as it is one of the few excuses my family has had to travel across the country, or down the road, and spend time with one another. And it is one of the few that has not, as of yet (knock on wood), been completely bastardized into a Hallmark buying frenzy. Even in that, I do not see myself as celebrating the Thanksgiving holiday, but rather enjoying the reunion with family and friends. A distinction perhaps only to myself.
For me the holidays are generally a charade. A day or two a year that people celebrate the birth of a friend, the love for another, the joy of their religious beliefs, or any of a number of other things. I, we, should not have to be told to purchase a gift for a friend or a loved one simply because of the calendar date. We should not have to be reminded to remember our deity. For if these things only occur because they are marked upon a calendar, do they really matter?
To me, everyday should be a celebration of those things. Being a Christian (Pastafarian really), I try to enjoy the Christmas spirit year round, much to the annoyance of those who know me. Between January and November of each year, you will be hard pressed to find a day that I am not singing Christmas songs aloud and at random. Come December, in proper spirit, I switch to Easter songs. If I see a gift that someone I care about might like and I can afford, I buy it and give it as a gift. Now. Not when their birthday or another holiday rolls around. Perhaps I am just odd. Alright, I am just odd, but in this case I don't see my behavior as strange, only as doing what I see as right.
The major exception to all my bah-humbugness is my daughter. With her, and for her, I celebrate all of the holidays. Each and every year she is my valentine. On Christmas I try to provide a few gifts for her to unwrap and enjoy. The same for each holiday she has chosen to celebrate, but I still never lose sight of the everyday. Each day she has been and will be in my life is the most precious gift of all. And I cherish all of these days.
We might not get to spend the time together that we would if she lived with me, and we might not do all the things that others would expect of a weekend parent, but we do get the most out of our time; even if it is time spent apart from each other. She is my daughter and being a part of her life is the most important and wonderful thing I will ever do in my own life.
Despite the ups and downs, the gray hairs she has given me, and the many nights of worry; I have always been proud of the girl she has been and the woman she is growing up to be. And so I truly hope she enjoys this 17th birthday and 18th year of her life as much as I will continue to cherish each day that I have been blessed with her as a daughter.
Happy Birthday Phaide. You might be getting older, but you will always be my little girl.
The only holiday I have always enjoyed is Thanksgiving, as it is one of the few excuses my family has had to travel across the country, or down the road, and spend time with one another. And it is one of the few that has not, as of yet (knock on wood), been completely bastardized into a Hallmark buying frenzy. Even in that, I do not see myself as celebrating the Thanksgiving holiday, but rather enjoying the reunion with family and friends. A distinction perhaps only to myself.
For me the holidays are generally a charade. A day or two a year that people celebrate the birth of a friend, the love for another, the joy of their religious beliefs, or any of a number of other things. I, we, should not have to be told to purchase a gift for a friend or a loved one simply because of the calendar date. We should not have to be reminded to remember our deity. For if these things only occur because they are marked upon a calendar, do they really matter?
To me, everyday should be a celebration of those things. Being a Christian (Pastafarian really), I try to enjoy the Christmas spirit year round, much to the annoyance of those who know me. Between January and November of each year, you will be hard pressed to find a day that I am not singing Christmas songs aloud and at random. Come December, in proper spirit, I switch to Easter songs. If I see a gift that someone I care about might like and I can afford, I buy it and give it as a gift. Now. Not when their birthday or another holiday rolls around. Perhaps I am just odd. Alright, I am just odd, but in this case I don't see my behavior as strange, only as doing what I see as right.
The major exception to all my bah-humbugness is my daughter. With her, and for her, I celebrate all of the holidays. Each and every year she is my valentine. On Christmas I try to provide a few gifts for her to unwrap and enjoy. The same for each holiday she has chosen to celebrate, but I still never lose sight of the everyday. Each day she has been and will be in my life is the most precious gift of all. And I cherish all of these days.
We might not get to spend the time together that we would if she lived with me, and we might not do all the things that others would expect of a weekend parent, but we do get the most out of our time; even if it is time spent apart from each other. She is my daughter and being a part of her life is the most important and wonderful thing I will ever do in my own life.
Despite the ups and downs, the gray hairs she has given me, and the many nights of worry; I have always been proud of the girl she has been and the woman she is growing up to be. And so I truly hope she enjoys this 17th birthday and 18th year of her life as much as I will continue to cherish each day that I have been blessed with her as a daughter.
Happy Birthday Phaide. You might be getting older, but you will always be my little girl.
